Let’s review. We’ve got EliteXC signing a deal with a major broadcast network, CBS, to air live MMA cards. Strikeforce just announced a deal with NBC to air highlight shows after Saturday Night Live. A deal sending UFC programming to FOX is most likely in the wings. Of course, we’ve already got UFC on SpikeTV, WEC on Versus, Pride reruns on Fox Sports Net and HD Net Fights on, well, HD Net. The amount of MMA on TV is multiplying by the day.

A question I’ve been posing is this: will MMA reach a critical mass? Is it risking overexposure? Before you laugh at me, think back to another sport that had been labeled the “fastest growing sport in America” just a few years ago: NASCAR.

Come on. Who didn’t watch NASCAR now and again a few years ago? I certainly did. Even though I’m not a huge racing fan, I did enjoy seeing a bunch of rednecks wreck each other at the end of the race and then try to duke it out afterword. For a while, it was entertaining.

Now, how many people who were casual NASCAR fans still watch? I watched about five minutes of Daytona, but that’s the first NASCAR event I’ve watched even a portion of over the past year. And I’m not alone: NASCAR officials were starting to worry nearly year ago, and financial analysts were already predicting black clouds on the horizon. Consider this tidbit from the April 19, 2007 edition of USA Today:

But A.G. Edwards analyst Tim Conder cautions a resumption of the downward ratings trend could be a sign NASCAR has entered a “mature” growth phase that could carry a significant risk for Nextel Cup teams recruiting sponsors.

“A sponsor has a pretty good point in negotiations of saying, ‘My exposure’s not going up, why should I pay more?’ ” Conder said. “You don’t make decisions like that based on one year. That’s why it’s so important this year. … There’ll be a lot of hard questions if ratings aren’t slightly up at a minimum.”

By the end of the season, it was clear that NASCAR had ratings troubles. The November 13, 2007 edition of USA Today documented them:

This season’s NASCAR Nextel Cup races — airing on Fox, TNT, ESPN and ABC — are averaging 4.2% of U.S. TV households — down 9% from last year’s average and off 21% from 2005.

ABC’s Checker Auto Parts 500 on Sunday — when Jimmie Johnson virtually nailed down the season points title — showed interest still is largely regional. The race drew 10.5% of households in Greenville, S.C., 9.1% in Knoxville, Tenn. and 7.8% in Birmingham, Ala. But it drew just 1.3% in New York, 1.9% in Los Angeles and 2.4% in Chicago.

So outside of its southern strongholds, NASCAR was bleeding viewers–viewers they can hardly afford to lose, considering they were in affluent, urban areas. Let’s face it: advertisers want the people with money.

It’s gotten so bad that NASCAR is now backpedaling and trying to win back hardcore fans who were annoyed with NASCAR’s growth. Apparently, the old fans of NASCAR didn’t like the new ones. With so many people like me refusing to watch the races these days, NASCAR is crawling back to it’s hardcore fanbase, according to a news release:

NASCAR is unveiling a brand message for the season dubbed “Our NASCAR” that targets its core fans, the same ones who have complained that the sport left them behind during its growth.

The brand message is part of an overall strategy to prevent erosion of the sport’s core fan base and reflects the attention NASCAR is paying to declines in TV ratings and attendance, especially among its most loyal fans.

OK, so that’s a lot about NASCAR. Probably too much for an MMA blog. But I wanted to make a point: NASCAR’s ratings peaked several years ago, during a period of great growth in exposure. MMA is entering that period right now, and will undoubtedly win new fans with broadcast TV deals. MMA is now the “fastest growing sport in the United States,” a label shed by NASCAR after its ratings decline. Will MMA face the same fate as NASCAR?

One thing to note here: it’s not like NASCAR is dead in the water. It’s still extremely popular, and still makes lots of money. I’m not suggesting that MMA will get so over-exposed that it dies off completely.

My point is this: MMA is going to be the “in” thing in the next few years. Lots of people who’ve never watched it before will be jumping on the bandwagon, and pretend to know what they are talking about. It’s going to be annoying. Really annoying. The question is, will those fans take the time to learn about the art of the sport, or will they simply cheer for stand up and boo the ground game that true MMA fans appreciate?

The next several months will be very important for MMA as a whole. EliteXC has a real opportunity with its CBS deal to expand its business and win over new supporters. The best thing that can happen right now in MMA would be for EliteXC to rise up and challenge UFC. As we’ve seen time and time again, competition makes a better product. Let’s just hope that MMA doesn’t become so popular that it’s over-exposed, resulting in a backlash against the sport. I fear the day that legislators try to outlaw MMA in the United States, but with the new TV deals will come new scrutiny.

Buckle up, MMA fans, it’s going to be an interesting year.